China Trade Growth Beats Forecast Despite Middle East War

China’s trade growth accelerated sharply in April, official data showed on Saturday, defying pressure from the Middle East conflict and reversing a recent decline in exports to the United States.

Exports from the world’s second-largest economy rose 14.1% year-on-year in April, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, far exceeding a Bloomberg forecast of 8.4% and quickening from March’s 2.5% increase.

Imports also climbed strongly, rising 25.3% from a year earlier, though slightly below March’s 27.8% surge. The figure topped economists’ expectations of 20%.

Strong trade performance has remained a key support for Beijing as weak domestic consumption and a prolonged property sector debt crisis continue to weigh on economic growth.

Analysts said China’s diversified energy supply had helped cushion the economy from immediate fallout linked to the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, though a broader global slowdown could eventually weaken export demand.

Attention is now turning to an expected meeting next week in Beijing between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump after earlier talks planned for March were delayed by the Middle East conflict.

The war disrupted global energy markets and pushed up oil prices as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply.

China’s exports to the United States rebounded 11.3% in April from a year earlier after plunging 26.5% in March, customs data showed. Shipments to the U.S. had also fallen 11% combined in January and February.

Trade relations are expected to dominate discussions between Xi and Trump, with both sides seeking concessions to support their economies.

China posted a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion last year, while Trump has repeatedly criticised the trade imbalance between the two countries.

Beijing has set an economic growth target of 4.5% to 5.0% for 2026, the lowest range in decades. Official data released in April showed first-quarter growth reached 5%, matching the top end of that target.

Economists have called on China to rely more on household consumption instead of traditional growth drivers such as real estate and infrastructure investment.Inflation data due on Monday is expected to provide further clues on the strength of domestic consumer demand.